Majority Report

Nate Silver, the statistician and psephologist, correctly predicted the winner in 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election, plus the winners of all 35 US Senate races. This time around he successfully predicted the winner in all 50 states, including the 9 “swing states”. (He also predicted the winner in D.C., although that wasn’t exactly a tough call.) On the morning of the election, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model gave Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of electoral college votes.

Nate Silver relaxing in the bath

If Silver can perfect his model, it opens up some exciting possibilities for future elections. For one, it will obviate the need for people to actually go to the polls and vote. Silver will simply run his stats and tell us how Americans would have voted had they gone to the polls. Just think of all the time and money this will save!

3 thoughts on “Majority Report”

  1. Ha! Actually, Silver would be better than the God of Open Theism. Silver knows would-counterfactuals, but according to Boyd et al, God only knows might-counterfactuals!

  2. I’ve also read Sam Wang and Drew Linzer have been prescient in their predictions. If Silver is the God of Open Theism, could Silver, Wang, and Linzer be the Trinity of Open Theism? :-)

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